Prediction markets in Spain: Polymarket, Kalshi and the DGOJ
What Polymarket and Kalshi are, how much they trade and why Spain's DGOJ has blocked them since May 2026. Current legal status.
By Marc Nieto
In two years, prediction markets have gone from a crypto niche to tens of billions of dollars in trading. Polymarket and Kalshi are the names everyone mentions, but in Spain the question is not only how they work, but whether they can be used at all. Since May 2026 the gambling regulator has blocked them while it investigates. Here is what we know today.
At a glance
What they are: platforms where you buy and sell contracts that pay $1 if an event happens (an election, a macro data release, a match) and $0 if it does not.
Volume: Kalshi and Polymarket together traded more than $44 billion in 2025, and volume kept growing in 2026.
Spain: in May 2026 the DGOJ ordered both platforms blocked for operating without a gambling licence and opened proceedings; the final ruling is yet to be confirmed.
What a prediction market is
A prediction market is a market for event contracts. Each contract asks a yes/no question: will the Fed cut rates at its next meeting? Will a given candidate win? Will bitcoin be above a certain price on a certain date? If the event happens, the contract pays $1; if not, it pays $0.
The contract’s price, between $0 and $1, is read as the probability the market assigns to that outcome. A contract at $0.62 means traders see a 62% chance. Supporters call this aggregated information; critics call it betting under another name.
Polymarket, Kalshi and the rest
Kalshi is a US platform regulated by the CFTC, the US derivatives regulator. In May 2025 it won its lawsuit against the CFTC itself, cementing its status as a regulated event-contract market, according to The Block. Several US states have still taken action against it, arguing that sports markets are illegal gambling.
Polymarket runs on blockchain: contracts settle in stablecoins and each market is resolved through an oracle and community review system. It is the platform most closely tied to crypto.
Other operators and social platforms that aggregate markets from several sources have appeared, but the market is highly concentrated: the big two take almost all the volume.
Volume and growth in 2025 and 2026
2024 was the breakout year, with the US presidential election as the showcase. 2025 was the year of scale: according to The Block, Kalshi and Polymarket traded more than $44 billion combined, peaking at over $10 billion in November.
The curve has not flattened in 2026. Pew Research Center shows total volume growing rapidly since mid-2025, and Statista ranks Kalshi as the larger of the two, with almost $15 billion traded in April 2026 alone. One caveat: trackers measure volume differently (notional, per contract or taker-only), so exact figures vary by source.
The legal situation in Spain
Health and Consumer Affairs ministry building on Paseo del Prado, Madrid. Image: Mr. Tickle / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.5)
In Spain the competent authority is the Directorate General for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ), part of the Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and Agenda 2030. According to CoinMarketCap, on 26 May 2026 the Official State Gazette published the measure by which the DGOJ ordered nationwide blocks on Polymarket and Kalshi and opened disciplinary proceedings against both, for offering services without the administrative authorisation Spanish law requires.
Key points:
Framing: the DGOJ treats prediction contracts as gambling, not as a financial product. That is the route Spain has taken, ahead of any fit under MiCA, the EU crypto-asset regulation.
Precautionary block: it is enforced by internet providers and was expected to last three to four months while proceedings run.
Current status: we have not been able to confirm in official sources whether the DGOJ has issued a final ruling. If it confirms unlicensed gambling, the block could become permanent.
Spain is not alone. The same source notes that Portugal ordered Polymarket blocked in January 2026, Argentina imposed a court-ordered block in March, Brazil blocked both platforms in April and Indonesia acted against Polymarket one day before Spain.
What it means for users in Spain
No licensed platform. Neither holds a Spanish gambling licence, so users lack the protections of an authorised operator.
Getting around the block does not make it legal. Using a VPN does not change the platform’s legal status and leaves users without clear ways to complain.
Risk of total loss. Any contract can end at zero. Add the risks of using stablecoins and crypto wallets, and the tax treatment of gains, which is worth checking with a tax adviser.
The line between finance, crypto and gambling is one of today’s big regulatory debates, and prediction markets sit right on it. At DEXT FORCE we bring together people who build, regulate and invest in these sectors in Barcelona, with sessions on finance, AI, startups and crypto, followed by an electronic music after party. See the sessions format.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal in Spain?
Polymarket has no Spanish gambling licence. Since May 2026 the DGOJ has ordered access blocked and opened disciplinary proceedings. The final ruling is yet to be confirmed.
What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US market that operates in dollars. Polymarket runs on blockchain and settles in stablecoins. In Spain, the DGOJ has acted against both alike.
How much money do prediction markets move?
Kalshi and Polymarket together traded more than $44 billion in 2025, according to The Block, and volume has kept growing in 2026, with months above $10 billion.
This article is for information only and is not financial, legal or tax advice.
By Marc Nieto
